The 2008 Democratic National Convention will have more than 4000 delegates. Primaries and caucuses will determine the allegiance of 3253 (80%) of these delegates. While the early contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina have winnowed out the candidates and generated a lot of hot air - both in the blogosphere and the MSM - they've only decided about 3% of the pledged delegates.
All these preliminary skirmishes have been fun, but now it's time to get serious. On February 5th HALF of all the pledged delegates will be selected. And late that night, when the final votes are counted, there's a good chance we'll know who the Democratic nominee is going to be ... join me on the flipside for a state-by-state look at the math ....
The 2008 Democratic National Convention will have more than 4000 delegates. Primaries and caucuses will determine the allegiance of 3253 (80%) of these delegates. While the early contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina have winnowed out the candidates and generated a lot of hot air - both in the blogosphere and the MSM - they've only decided about 3% of the pledged delegates.
All these preliminary skirmishes have been fun, but now it's time to get serious. On February 5th HALF of all the pledged delegates will be selected. And late that night, when the final votes are counted, there's a good chance we'll know who the Democratic nominee is going to be ... join me on the flipside for a state-by-state look at the math ....
Here's a table that shows each state that's in play on Tsunami Tuesday and the most recent polling data. The totals for each candidate are just a rough guide arrived at by multiplying their percentage in the polls by the delegates at stake.
| | | Most | Recent | Polls |
State | Pledged Delegates | | Clinton | Obama | Edwards |
California | 370 | | 43 | 28 | 11 |
New York | 232 | | 50 | 28 | 10 |
Illinois | 153 | | 22 | 51 | 15 |
New Jersey | 107 | | 46 | 28 | 10 |
Georgia | 87 | | 35 | 41 | 13 |
Minnesota | 72 | | 47 | 22 | 16 |
Missouri | 72 | | 44 | 31 | 18 |
Tennessee | 68 | | 34 | 20 | 16 |
Arizona | 56 | | 37 | 27 | 15 |
Colorado | 55 | | 29 | 23 | 23 |
Alabama | 52 | | 43 | 28 | 16 |
Connecticut | 48 | | 41 | 27 | 9 |
Oklahoma | 38 | | 45 | 19 | 25 |
Arkansas | 35 | | 57 | 17 | 14 |
New Mexico | 26 | | 17 | 8 | 8 |
Utah | 23 | | 31 | 18 | 9 |
Idaho | 18 | | 31 | 33 | 15 |
Delaware | 15 | | 41 | 17 | 7 |
Feb 5th Total | 1527 | | 617 | 446 | 199 |
Two weeks is an eternity in politics, but Hillary supporters can try to forget the South Carolina blowout and take solace in what is still a very strong position. Obama supporters have to set aside the champagne and realize the campaign has only just begun. Edwards backers have to .... I don't know .... haven't figured that out yet ....
In any event, in two weeks we're going to have a mini-national primary. 18 states with 47% of the national convention's pledged delegates up for grabs. Let's get ready to RUMMMMBBBBLLLEEE !!!!